Good relations?

Donald Trump said he would allow Chinese automakers to build factories on US soil — provided they use only American labor — but he categorically ruled out direct imports of finished cars. The president emphasized that Washington will not tolerate schemes to manufacture cheap Chinese EVs in Mexico for subsequent cross-border shipments. His comments came ahead of the planned state visit to the White House by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of September.

Trump insisted he is not worried about a possible cancellation of the meeting, calling his relationship with the Chinese leader "excellent." At the same time, Kyodo reports that Beijing has warned it may call off Xi's visit if the US approves a new roughly $14 billion arms package for Taiwan. Beyond Taiwan and the future trade truce — set to expire on November 10 — the leaders plan to discuss global trade, AI development and the Middle East conflict.

Trump also told reporters in Ireland that the United States maintains technological leadership over China in artificial intelligence and must preserve that edge. "Whoever wins the AI race will win everything else," he said. Responding to multiple senior tech executives on Wall Street warning of potential AI risks, the president said he is broadly not opposed to basic protective measures.

He added, however, that many of the alarmist warnings could be overblown and driven by pessimistic interests sounding the alarm over hypothetical problems. That White House skepticism contrasts with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's stance, who has urged independent auditors to verify safety standards and called for international cooperation to establish common AI rules.

On the prospect of the Xi meeting being canceled, Trump remained unconcerned — he insists relations with the Chinese leader are excellent. Again, Kyodo says Beijing warned it could cancel the visit if Washington approves a roughly $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. In addition to the Taiwan issue and the trade truce expiring November 10, the agenda between the leaders will include global trade, AI and the Middle East conflict.

AI panic on Wall Street

Amid mounting disputes, the industry's key players (Anthropic, OpenAI and Google) have already held closed-door talks aimed at creating a common AI safety body. Anthropic and OpenAI have publicly called for more restrained release schedules, citing rising systemic risks to society, but their initiative faces strong pushback from investors and officials.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei insists on full government oversight for the most advanced systems and on mechanisms for independent verification. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has voiced support for a "careful pace," clarifying that the call is not to stop progress but to manage risks consciously. The leaders of major AI labs risk clashing directly with Wall Street and the Trump administration if they press to slow the pace of development of the most powerful models.

Amodei's plea for a pause in advanced AI development for safety reasons provoked an unexpectedly fierce investor reaction. The market took the comments as a signal of imminent capex cuts in the tech sector, triggering chaotic sell-offs on Monday:

• South Korea's Kospi fell 3.3%
• The Stoxx Europe 600 technology index dropped 2.5%
• Shares of ASML plunged 6.2%
• SoftBank (which owns roughly 13% of OpenAI) plunged 10.7%

It remains unclear whether the cautionary rhetoric — intensified by the departure of a leading Anthropic researcher — will translate into real cuts to infrastructure budgets. President Trump has already said the United States must preserve its lead over China in AI, making a scenario of sustained slowdown by American developers unlikely amid fierce technological rivalry with Beijing.

Oil and diplomacy

The president also sought to calm commodity markets amid fears of shrinking oil supplies. Trump said Iranian authorities are actively trying to engage in dialogue with the United States and hope to reach agreements on contentious points. According to the president, Tehran frequently reaches out, but Washington will only accept a deal it considers appropriate. Earlier, Trump suggested the Iran conflict could end after the US midterms in early November.

Will oil set new records? The commodity picture has grown markedly more acute: Saudi Arabia has fully shut the East-West pipeline — a route capable of handling up to 7 million barrels per day — after drone attacks on facilities near Riyadh and Medina. Closing this artery, which served as a key alternative to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, dramatically raises supply risks amid ongoing Houthi attacks and shipping constraints.

A proposed Iran–Oman temporary shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz also raises questions, particularly among Gulf states. The matter surfaced in public talks during the BRICS summit in India between Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed the deal does not imply full reopening and that Tehran will retain the right to selectively admit vessels.

A planned regional meeting of GCC foreign ministers in Oman to formalize an Oman–Iran temporary shipping arrangement was officially postponed. Regional consensus remains in doubt:

• Bahrain formally refused to attend following recent attacks linked to Iran.
• Renewed clashes between pro-Saudi forces and Houthi rebels in Yemen complicate efforts to normalize Red Sea shipping.
• Media report that Riyadh made major amendments to the draft agreement with Tehran and Muscat, fearing the original wording would effectively legitimize an unacceptable new status quo in the strait for Arab monarchies.

Oman's foreign minister Badr al-Busaidi said talks in Salalah were postponed to achieve regional consensus. Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi reiterated that the proposed route is not an open corridor; a full unblocking will come only after a final settlement with Washington.

Meanwhile, the oil price surge and higher US pump prices are creating serious political pressure on the Republican Party just over 50 days before the midterms. Aiming to calm markets and voters, Trump promised the Middle East conflict would end immediately after the elections — or even before — after which fuel prices would "drop like a stone." Tension in commodity markets is amplified by historically low US strategic reserves and China's urgent need to ramp up imports in August after depleting domestic stocks.

September 15

September 15, 04:30 / China / New-home prices for August / prev.: -3.3% / actual: -3.2% / forecast: -3.1% / USD/CNY — down

New-home prices in China eased their decline in July, recording the slowest rate of contraction so far this year. Housing market dynamics were shaped by:

• moderated price falls in Guangzhou (-2.2%), Shenzhen (-2.9%) and Tianjin (-4.4%);
• continued price gains in Shanghai (+3.0%);
• a monthly price dip holding at 0.1%.

Markets expect the housing-sector slowdown to continue easing in August. If realized, that would support the yuan and push USD/CNY lower.

September 15, 05:00 / China / Industrial production for August / prev.: 5.3% / actual: 4.5% / forecast: 4.8% / USD/CNY — down

China's industrial output growth slowed in July, missing expectations due to weak domestic demand and weather effects. The readings were affected by:

• strong gains in electronics (+19.1%), shipbuilding (+13.6%) and automotive production (+8.7%);
• contractions in mining (-4.2%) and coal (-10.8%);
• moderate expansion in utilities and energy (+5.0%).

Markets expect industrial growth to recover in August. Improved factory activity would bolster the yuan and push USD/CNY down.

September 15, 05:00 / China / Retail sales for August / prev.: 1.0% / actual: 0.6% / forecast: 0.8% / USD/CNY — down

Retail sales growth in China slowed sharply in July, below consensus. Consumer demand was influenced by:

• a steep 17.0% drop in auto sales and an 8.8% fall in furniture spending;
• a strong surge in electronics and communications spending (+20.4%);
• solid growth in food (+5.3%) and cosmetics (+6.8%).

Markets expect retail activity to pick up in August. If confirmed, stronger consumer demand would support the yuan and weigh on USD/CNY.

September 15, 09:00 / Germany / Producer Price Index (PPI) for August / prev.: 4.9% / actual: 5.3% / forecast: 6.2% / EUR/USD — up

Germany's PPI accelerated in July, marking the twentieth consecutive month of positive growth. Inflation-of-costs was driven by:

• sharp rises in non-ferrous ores and metals (+27.8%) and petroleum products (+24.1%) amid Middle East developments;
• higher chemical (+13.1%) and ICT-equipment prices (+9.0%);
• notable price declines for live cattle (-18.5%), dairy (-9.4%) and meat products (-6.1%);
• a 0.2% monthly rebound in wholesale prices after June's dip.

Markets expect further PPI gains in August. Persistently high input-cost inflation would raise the odds that the ECB keeps policy tight, supporting the euro.

September 15, 09:00 / UK / Change in employment for July / prev.: 147k / actual: 83k / forecast: 70k / GBP/USD — down

Three-month employment growth in the UK slowed, hitting the weakest pace so far this year. Labor market developments included:

• a drop in part-time employment while full-time employment held steady;
• overall employment remaining at 75.1%;
• an increase in people with second jobs to 1.293 million.

Analysts expect further softening in job creation in July. A cooling labor market could weigh on the pound.

September 15, 12:00 / Eurozone / Goods trade balance for July / prev.: -€9.0bn / actual: €8.6bn / forecast: €3.7bn / EUR/USD — down

The eurozone posted a €8.6bn trade surplus in June, far above expectations. The improvement was supported by:

• a 14.4% surge in exports, driven by shipments to China (+14.4%) and the US (+10.3%);
• a 13.1% rise in imports, including more goods from the UK and China;
• wider surpluses in chemicals and food that offset the energy deficit.

Analysts expect a moderate narrowing of the surplus in July. A shrinking trade surplus could weigh on the euro.

September 15, 12:00 / Eurozone / ZEW economic sentiment index for September (leading) / prev.: 23.4 pts / actual: 31.4 pts / forecast: 39.9 / EUR/USD — up

ZEW sentiment in the eurozone rose in August to a six-month high, marking three months of improvement. The rebound reflected:

• a 16.2-point rise in the current-situation assessment;
• a decline in experts' inflation expectations to 2.4%;
• a predominance of optimistic growth assessments among analysts.

Further improvement in sentiment in September would support the euro.

September 15, 12:00 / Germany / ZEW economic sentiment index for September (leading) / prev.: 26.3 pts / actual: 34.2 pts / forecast: 37.0 pts / EUR/USD — up

Germany's ZEW sentiment climbed sharply in August to its highest level since February. The indicator was driven by:

• strong corporate reports, resilient export volumes and infrastructure spending;
• a notable rise in automotive-sector sentiment;
• an improvement in the current conditions assessment to -61.1 points.

Further gains in the index would be positive for the euro.

September 15, 12:00 / Germany / ZEW economic conditions index for September (leading) / prev.: -77.6 pts / actual: -61.1 pts / forecast: -52.2 pts / EUR/USD — up

ZEW's current conditions gauge for Germany improved in August, retreating from July's lows. The reading reflects diminished pessimism among experts about the current business situation. Continued improvement would support the euro.

September 15, 15:15 / US / ADP 4-week average private payroll gains / prev.: 10k / actual: 12k / forecast: — / USDX (6-currency USD index) — up

The four-week average of private sector job gains through August 22 rose to 12.5k, indicating steady hiring by private employers. With no consensus forecast, attention shifts to subsequent releases. Continued strength in hiring would support the US dollar.

September 15, 15:30 / Canada / Wholesale trade volume for July (m/m) / prev.: 0% / actual: 2.8% / forecast: -0.5% / USD/CAD — up

Canadian wholesale trade rose 2.8% in June, one of the strongest readings this year. Preliminary signs for July include:

• a renewed contraction in wholesale turnover for the first time since January;
• weaker agricultural sales;
• lower mineral, ore and precious-metals trade.

Markets expect wholesale volumes to fall in July. Softer trade would weigh on the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD up.

September 15, 23:30 / US / API weekly crude oil inventories / prev.: -2.6 mln bbl / actual: -0.3 mln bbl / forecast: — / Brent — up

US commercial crude stocks fell by 0.3 million barrels for the week to September 4. The report showed:

• a 0.3 million-barrel draw in commercial crude inventories;
• a 1.2 million-barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve;
• a draw at Cushing and lower gasoline stocks;
• US crude production rising to 13.862 mln b/d.

With no consensus forecast, attention shifts to the next releases. Continued inventory draws would support Brent prices.

September 16

September 16, 02:50 / Japan / Trade balance for August / prev.: -409.9bn / actual: -634.5bn / forecast: -1,052.6bn / USD/JPY — up

Japan's trade deficit widened sharply in July, marking the third consecutive month in the red. The external imbalance was driven by:

• record import growth (+27.8%) led by an 87.8% jump in oil purchases;
• a 23.2% rise in exports to a new high, helped by a weaker yen and demand for AI chips;
• import growth outpacing exports amid economic stimulus measures.

Analysts expect the trade deficit to widen further in August. A larger external gap would weigh on the yen and push USD/JPY higher.

September 16, 02:50 / Japan / Machinery orders for July / prev.: -1.9% / actual: 16.9% / forecast: 15.3% / USD/JPY — down

Japan's year-on-year machinery-order growth posted an impressive surge in June. The reading was supported by:

• a large month?on?month increase in orders;
• a level well above the long-term average of 0.93%;
• recovery in industrial demand for equipment.

Analysts expect order growth to slow in July, which could soften the yen.

September 16, 09:00 / UK / Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August / prev.: 2.6% / actual: 2.9% / forecast: 3.1% / GBP/USD — up

UK annual consumer inflation accelerated in July to a four-month high. Price dynamics were driven by:

• higher energy caps and a 14.7% jump in gas prices;
• renewed price rises for furniture, clothing, alcohol and tobacco;
• easing transport inflation due to falling diesel costs.

Analysts expect inflation to pick up further in August. Continued price pressures would keep the Bank of England on a hawkish path and support the pound.

September 16, 09:00 / UK / Input-prices index for August / prev.: 7.4% / actual: 4.9% / forecast: 4.7% / GBP/USD — down

UK input-price inflation slowed sharply in July, retreating from prior peaks. The slowdown reflected:

• a reduced annual pace of materials-cost inflation to the weakest level since February;
• a monthly fall in producer input costs of 1.7%.

Markets expect further easing in commodity costs in August. Lower producer input pressures would reduce the need for tighter policy and could weigh on the pound.

September 16, 09:00 / UK / Retail Price Index (RPI) for August / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.5% / GBP/USD — up

The UK retail price index rose in July, posting the largest increase since spring. The print was shaped by:

• RPI accelerating to 3.2% year-on-year;
• a 0.6% monthly rise.

Analysts expect further RPI increases in August. If confirmed, the retail price dynamic would support the pound.

September 16, 12:00 / Eurozone / Industrial production for July / prev.: -0.1% / actual: 0.1% / forecast: -0.3% / EUR/USD — down

Eurozone industrial output returned to slight growth in June, beating expectations. Despite the local improvement, the level remains below the long-term norm of 0.86%. Analysts expect production to weaken again in July. A renewed contraction would weigh on the euro.

September 16, 12:00 / Eurozone / Labour costs, Q2 / prev.: 3.3% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.0% / EUR/USD — down

Hourly labour cost growth in the eurozone slowed in Q1, showing the weakest rise since late 2021. The slowdown reflected:

• a moderation in wage-bill growth;
• a modest rise in non-wage business costs.

Markets expect further deceleration in labour cost growth in Q2. Cooling wage pressures would reduce inflation risks and weigh on the euro.

September 16, 12:00 / Eurozone / Compensation per employee, Q2 / prev.: 3.1% / actual: 3.4% / forecast: 3.2% / EUR/USD — down

Compensation per employee accelerated in the eurozone in Q1. The increase was driven by:

• substantial wage gains in mining, real estate and construction;
• faster pay growth in Germany, Spain, Italy and France.

A projected cooling in pay growth would ease pressure on the euro.

September 16, 15:15 / Canada / Housing starts for August / prev.: 240.8k / actual: 229.1k / forecast: 237.5k / USD/CAD — down

Canadian housing starts fell 5% in July, retreating from June levels. The slowdown reflected:

• a 19% drop in starts in major urban centers;
• a sharp fall in Vancouver (-42%) and Toronto (-10%);
• modest gains in Montreal (+3%).

Analysts expect starts to recover in August. A housing market rebound would support the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD lower.

September 16, 15:30 / Canada / Building permits for July (m/m) / prev.: -3.0% / actual: 18.5% / forecast: -5.8% / USD/CAD — up

Canadian building permits rebounded sharply in June to their highest level in two years. The increase was driven by:

• a C$1.8bn jump in non-residential permits from institutional projects;
• stronger plans for industrial and commercial construction;
• a 6.3% rise in residential permitting.

Markets expect a decline in permits next period. A slowdown in construction activity would weaken the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD up.

September 16, 15:30 / US / Retail sales for August / prev.: 6.8% / actual: 5.0% / forecast: 4.7% / USDX — down

US retail sales growth slowed year-on-year in July, indicating a moderation in consumer spending. The picture reflected:

• growth remaining above the long-term average of 4.76%;
• a sharp slowdown in auto sales;
• constrained consumer spending amid high prices.

Markets expect further moderation in retail activity in August. Softer consumer demand would be a headwind for the dollar.

September 16, 15:30 / US / Export prices for August / prev.: 10.2% / actual: 8.2% / forecast: 8.5% / USDX — up

US export price growth eased from prior highs but remained well above long-run norms. The dynamics reflected:

• a correction after June's spike in external selling prices;
• readings still well above the long-term average of 1.54%;
• a modest easing of trade price pressure.

Markets expect export price acceleration to resume in August. A re-acceleration would support the dollar.

US import price growth slowed from four-year highs in July. The change reflected:

• slower fuel import inflation (25.2%) as energy costs eased;
• faster non-fuel import price growth (4.5%);
• an overall reduction in external inflationary pressure.

Markets expect import prices to pick up in August. If so, the dollar would be supported.

September 16, 15:30 / US / NY Fed business activity index (services) for September (leading) / prev.: 8.7 pts / actual: 0.5 pts / forecast: — / USDX — down

The NY Fed services sector activity index for August plunged, signaling a sharp slowdown. The reading was shaped by:

• deeply negative business climate assessments (-25.7 pts) and worsening supply availability;
• a rise in the input price index to 70.1 pts while selling prices held steady;
• the future activity gauge tumbling to -16.5 pts amid rising business pessimism.

With no consensus forecast, attention shifts to subsequent releases. A buildup of negative service sector sentiment could weigh on the dollar.

September 16, 17:00 / US / NAHB housing market index for September (leading) / prev.: 34 pts / actual: 35 pts / forecast: 34 pts / USDX — down

The NAHB homebuilder confidence index showed a modest rebound in August, beating expectations. The reading reflected:

• a 2-point rise in the current sales measure (to 39);
• six-month forward sales expectations holding at 43;
• a decline in the share of builders offering discounts to 35%.

Analysts expect a corrective pullback in builder sentiment in September. A cooling housing sector would be a headwind for the dollar.

September 16, 17:30 / US / EIA crude oil inventories / prev.: -4.450 mln / actual: -0.391 mln / forecast: 6.729 mln / Brent — down

US commercial crude stocks fell slightly in the first week of September, missing expectations for a larger draw. The report showed:

• a 0.684 million-barrel draw at Cushing;
• refinery runs up by 90k b/d;
• gasoline stocks increasing by 1.269 million barrels and distillates by 2.087 million barrels;
• a jump in net crude imports of 1.12 million b/d.

Markets expect a strong inventory build in the next report. If confirmed, that would weigh on Brent.

September 16, 21:00 / US / Federal Reserve interest rate decision / prev.: 3.75% / actual: 3.75% / forecast: 4.00% / USDX — up

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at 3.75%. The statement highlighted:

• persistent inflation risks and the Fed's readiness to resume tightening;
• that some officials favor an immediate hike;
• restrictive financial conditions weighing on aggregate demand.

Markets are pricing in further rate increases by the Fed. Expectations of more hawkish action support the US dollar.

Events & speakers to watch

• Sept 15, 11:15 / Eurozone — Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board) — EUR/USD
• Sept 15, 17:00 / Eurozone — Piero Cipollone (ECB Executive Board) — EUR/USD
• Sept 15, 18:00 / UK — Carolyn Wilkins (BoE Financial Policy Committee) — GBP/USD
• Sept 15, 20:00 / Eurozone — Isabel Schnabel (ECB Executive Board) — EUR/USD
• Sept 16, 15:15 / Eurozone — Boris Vujcic (ECB Governing Council) — EUR/USD
• Sept 16, 16:00 / Eurozone — Frank Elderson (ECB Executive Board) — EUR/USD
• Sept 16, 20:00 / Eurozone — Christine Lagarde, ECB President — EUR/USD
• Sept 16, 21:30 / US — Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair — USDX

We also expect remarks from other central bank officials these days; their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they may hint at future policy paths.