Bitcoin and Ethereum have been trading in sideways channels for several weeks after a sharp surge in mid-August. However, that absolutely does not mean the downtrend that began last year has ended. On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has got stuck in a $60,000�$82,500 range, while the weekly chart still shows a downtrend. So whatever people say, we do not believe a new bull market started over the summer. Many analysts still point to the four-year cycle, which suggests Bitcoin should finish its year-long correction this autumn and begin a new bull phase � but a four-year cycle is not an eternal law. Too many so-called "experts" constantly forecast Bitcoin's rally regardless of world events, investor interest or fundamentals.

This week may prove decisive for Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve could raise its policy rate for the first time in three years, and if it does, there is little doubt � Bitcoin would head lower. At the same time, experts at quantum company IonQ warned that by 2028, a supercomputer could appear capable of breaking the Bitcoin network. According to the firm's analysts, cracking Bitcoin would require a fault-tolerant quantum computer with 20,000 physical qubits and about 1,500 logical qubits. Such a machine, they estimate, could break Bitcoin in roughly 25 days.

This is far from the first warning about an existential threat to digital assets posed by quantum computing. Warnings about quantum risks to cryptocurrencies � after all, software code can be hacked � have appeared repeatedly. No unbreakable code has yet been invented; the question is one of time and technology.

If the development of quantum supercomputers continues at the present pace, it is a strongly negative factor for Bitcoin. The mere prospect of a machine capable of cracking the network could spook investors and prompt them to abandon already-risky crypto holdings. Many Bitcoin proponents and industry experts argue the threat is not immediate: they point out that the Bitcoin protocol's security is world-class and that developers continuously improve protections. Still, it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility outright given the rapid progress in AI and quantum technologies.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin is still forming a downtrend despite the August rally. We still expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year uptrend), although that level has effectively already been tested. We do not believe the downtrend has ended. The recent rise in the leading cryptocurrency looks fragile as a corrective move and is not a convincing reason to open long positions. Liquidity could be swept from the $82,850 high, potentially triggering a new leg down. On the 4-hour chart, long positions may become relevant in the near term if the price forms a deviation near the lower boundary of the sideways channel.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum's technical picture changed dramatically in just a few days. Ether may now be able to start a new uptrend. However, traders should focus on the weekly chart, where ETH could target $4,800 � the upper band of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily chart, the nearest bearish FVG has been filled, but that gap belongs to the previous trend; if it triggers a market reaction, it will most likely be corrective. Also note the liquidity sweep of the April 17 highs and liquidity removal on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin has likewise swept liquidity on the 4-hour and remains within a wide daily-timeframe sideways channel. Thus, Bitcoin is currently biased lower on both timeframes, and Ethereum looks similarly tilted to the downside.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop-Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.