Шунингдек қаранг
18.09.2026 05:54 PM
The GBP/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum, and at present the chart pattern looks as though the pound will continue to decline. The price reacted to Bearish Imbalance 27, which allowed traders to open sell positions and created new, less favorable prospects for the pound. This week, the Fed tightened monetary policy, while the Bank of England once again took a neutral stance, leaving the door open for a rate hike. However, the open door did not satisfy traders. The ECB has already conducted two rounds of monetary policy tightening, the Fed one, while the Bank of England expects inflation to rise to 4% and remains on the sidelines while its counterparts take more decisive action. Thus, the pound had no chance of winning this week and can strengthen slightly only on a corrective retracement after Imbalance 25 is worked out.
Despite the unfavorable picture for the British pound that has developed in recent weeks, the dollar has also suffered many blows in recent months, including. If the Fed had not decided to raise the interest rate in September and signaled its readiness to tighten policy at least one more time before the end of the year, I would still expect the US currency to decline. I expect this now as well, but from lower levels. Imbalance 25 plays the same role for the pound as Imbalance 19 does for the euro the role of the last hope and support. If both European currencies consolidate below these patterns, nothing will be able to stop the bears. There are still chances of renewed growth within the annual ranges, but these opportunities will not last forever.
Do the bears have prospects at present? In my opinion, they are limited, but it should be acknowledged that the dollar has entered a favorable period. The Fed not only decided to raise the rate but also signaled to traders its readiness to continue tightening. I do not believe that a prolonged decline in GBP/USD is possible based on this factor alone; however, in recent weeks, the market has done nothing but price in the FOMC rate hike. What could prevent it from buying the dollar for several more weeks amid the Fed's monetary policy tightening?
Negotiations between the United States and Iran have failed once again and are no longer taking place. From time to time, Iran and the United States exchange strikes, threats, and ultimatums, which have no effect on resolving the conflict and ending the war. No one can currently predict how much longer the conflict will continue. However, if it intensifies and escalates, the dollar may receive an additional supporting factor.
Chart analysis shows that the picture changed from bullish to bearish in just a few days after liquidity was taken from the May highs. The pound reacted to Bearish Imbalance 27, which triggered a new decline in prices. The target of the decline was Imbalance 25, and it was reached today. In addition, a new Bearish Imbalance 29 was formed at the end of yesterday's trading session, and the bears may subsequently receive another opportunity to open sell positions. However, I currently expect a reaction to Imbalance 25 and a counterattack by the bulls.
The economic information background on Friday supported the pound, as the retail sales report showed a higher reading than expected. However, traders ignored this event as well, so the pound received no support. Although at a slower pace, the bears continued their attack even on Friday following a six-day decline.
The overall information background remains such that, in the long term, I cannot expect anything other than a decline in the US currency. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed my long-term expectations. Geopolitical factors prompted the market to remember the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The future of FOMC monetary policy remains uncertain, while the market continues to expect only further tightening, which is the main reason for the bears' positive sentiment. In my opinion, any dollar appreciation is temporary and random. I would also note that GBP/USD has been trading in a range for an entire year. The range allows traders to expect virtually any movement within its boundaries. Traders have not yet managed to break out of the range.
On September 21, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The economic background will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.
The long-term picture for the pound remains bullish. In recent weeks, the bears have taken control of the initiative, and all recent bullish patterns have been invalidated. The liquidity sweep of the May 1 swing allowed the decline to begin; a sell signal was formed within Inverted Imbalance 27, and another bearish signal was formed in Imbalance 27 last week. Thus, traders can now keep their sell positions open, and there is room for further declines in both the euro and the pound. The current target for the pound is the 1.33071.3333 level. Another Bearish Imbalance may be formed at today's close, while Imbalance 25 will attempt to stop the bears' advance and save the bulls from further losses. The information background is not currently strong enough for the dollar to allow the pair's decline to continue below Imbalance 25.
