Review of macroeconomic releases:

There are relatively few macroeconomic releases scheduled for Friday, and they are unlikely to excite traders. The UK will publish monthly GDP and industrial production, and the eurozone will publish nothing. The only report that could hypothetically trigger a strong market reaction is US inflation. That report largely determines the Federal Reserve's decision next week, but if the actual figure matches the forecast, traders will have nothing to react to. A 3.4% reading for August is already priced in. Thus volatility could spike in the second half of the day, but there are no guarantees — everything depends on how surprising US inflation proves to be.

Review of fundamental events:

Another event to note on Friday is a speech by Christine Lagarde, but the European Central Bank meeting took place only yesterday, so the market has already received the necessary information. It is unlikely Lagarde will reveal today information she omitted yesterday. The ECB's stance is clear: it is prepared to continue tightening policy in response to high inflation. The question now is whether the Fed is ready to respond.

The geopolitical backdrop remains worrying. The US and Iran are not negotiating; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed; Yemeni Houthis continue to blockade Saudi Arabia and actively attack its facilities. Donald Trump has announced an unprecedented economic operation to "destroy" Iran and threatens sanctions against countries that interact with it. So far, no one has endorsed Trump's plan to destroy Iran, and whether it will be implemented is unknown. Over the weekend, Iran and the US again exchanged strikes, which the market largely ignored.

General conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, currency pairs may trade a bit more actively than usual. Trade the euro from the 1.1584–1.1594 area and the pound from 1.3456–1.3476. The downward correction for the euro and the pound may already be finished or close to completion, but the US inflation report could trigger either a strong dollar rally or a sharp dollar selloff.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.