Shuningdek qarang
11.09.2026 05:58 AM
The GBP/USD pair traded calmly on Thursday. The pair saw an emotional spike after the European Central Bank announcement, but overall moves remain weak. Traders should remember that trend and momentum matter one day or one report does not decide everything. A clear example is the recent U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report: traders inferred inevitable Federal Reserve tightening next week from that single strong print. August Nonfarm Payrolls did show a surprisingly large number, three times consensus, but what about the annual report that was nearly 100k lower? What about the previous four reports that showed weakness in the labor market? Can one report erase five prior ones? We do not believe so. The same logic applies to volatility: in the last 30 days it exceeded 100 pips only once. So whatever volatility the pair showed yesterday or today doesn't change the overall picturethose are just two isolated days, while the rest of the time market moves are very weak.
Today the market awaits the most important report/event of the week. Although many traders expect a September hike, significant doubts remain. We would put it differently: there are big doubts, because the market today relies mostly on one strong Nonfarm print and recent comments by Kevin Warsh. Yet as noted, one payroll report does not allow long-term conclusions. Regarding Warsh's remarks: yes, he has repeatedly emphasized the need to slow inflation, but does that mean the Fed and Warsh personally are ready to vote for a September hike? Recall that several FOMC members said last week they see no grounds for tightening inflation is slowing, and there is no rush. Therefore, our view remains unchanged: whatever August's inflation shows, the Fed will not change the key rate in September.
Still, CPI can influence market sentiment and even Fed thinking. If inflation prints above expectations, the market will become more confident in Fed tightening next week and may buy dollars in advance. If inflation falls short of forecasts, the tightening probability will drop, and the dollar will face short positions. Yet even after the inflation release, it will be very hard to answer definitively "What will the Fed do on Wednesday evening?" So today we expect another emotional spike that will ultimately change little. The pound continues to look upward, but looking is not enough price must move to confirm it.
Average volatility of GBP/USD over the last 5 trading days is 52 pips "low" for the pair. For Friday, September 11, we therefore expect movement within the 1.34761.3580 range. The major linear-regression channel has turned up, indicating an uptrend. The CCI entered oversold territory, warning of a possible end to the correction.
S1 1.3489
S2 1.3428
S3 1.3367
R1 1.3550
R2 1.3611
R3 1.3672
GBP/USD retains an upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar strength. 2026 has been dollar-positive so far due to geopolitics, but every story ends. On the weekly TF, the pair remains flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, allowing for expectations of continued pound gains in the medium term. Long positions with targets at 1.3580 and 1.3611 can be considered when price is above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows short positions with targets at 1.3495 and 1.3476.
Regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is currently strong;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at present;
Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channel within which the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators;
The CCI indicator its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
