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11.09.2026 05:59 AMBitcoin has traded in a sideways channel for three weeks after a sharp surge to $18,000. Recall that Bitcoin often pauses within strong trends and then, even without a correction, shows a new powerful move. Thus, Bitcoin's inability at this time to continue moving upward does not mean the local "north impulse" has ended. However, this impulse is precisely local. On the daily timeframe, it is clearly visible that "digital gold" is essentially within a sideways channel. Of course, on the daily chart the 2026 moves do not look like a flat, whereas they do on the weekly TF. And we remind you that a flat can form on any TF. On a weekly chart, a flat can last for years. Most importantly, Bitcoin is currently near the upper boundary of the sideways channel. This means a deviation may form as liquidity is removed from the previous high, or at least a simple bounce. Either way, the downtrend is not broken.
Today, the US will publish the August inflation report, the last major report before the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Bitcoin's dynamics and its attractiveness to investors still depend on the Fed's monetary policy, so the US inflation report matters for the crypto market. At the same time, the main reason for Bitcoin's fall over the past year is not the Fed's monetary policy. It remains fairly "tight," since last year the Fed raised the rate three times to support the labor market. However, for the most part, Bitcoin has been falling due to reduced investor demand, the development of the AI sector, the lack of adoption of the Clarity Act, and Donald Trump's overall policy, which does not favor the growth of risk assets.
Also remember that Bitcoin cannot grow forever and constantly. Corrections must also occur, and on higher timeframes they can take months and years. Thus, in any case, we consider Bitcoin's decline over the past year entirely natural. If the Fed raises the key rate next week, Bitcoin may resume its fall. And the Fed can raise the rate only if today's US inflation comes in above forecasts.
On the daily TF, Bitcoin continues forming a downtrend and has entered a flat phase. The trend structure is downward, and the CHOCH line is at $82,800, where the last LH (Lower High) formed. Only above this level can one consider the downtrend to be completed. Most of 2026, "digital gold" has been between $60,000 and $82,500, which means the price may remove liquidity from the last LH and start a new move toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel.
On the 4-hour TF, Bitcoin is also clearly flat and has twice removed sell-side liquidity, forming two deviations of the channel's upper boundary. Thus, traders received at least two sell signals, allowing them to expect declines with targets of 50% and 100% of the channel width. As we see, the first target has already been reached, and Bitcoin continues moving toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel. Near the lower boundary, also monitor deviations and liquidity grabs. As long as Bitcoin remains in a flat range, trading should be only from the channel's boundaries.
Bitcoin continues forming a downtrend despite the strong rise a week earlier. We still expect a drop to $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has already been reached. But we do not believe the downtrend is finished. The current rise in the first cryptocurrency only weakly resembles a correction, but that is not a strong argument for opening long positions. Liquidity can be removed from the $82,850 high, which may provoke a new wave of the downtrend. On the 4-hour TF, a decline can also be expected after the two liquidity grabs from the recent highs (deviations). We believe a fall to $75,500 is quite likely. Further — either a deviation and a new rise, or an exit from the channel and a new downtrend wave with the prospect of a fall to $50,000.
CHOCH – break of the trend structure.
Liquidity – Liquidity, stop losses, and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap. A price area of inefficiency. Price passes through these areas quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to these areas to continue the main trend.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, price does not get a reaction and impulsively breaks it, then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position with the aim of taking liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.
